Staturday Weekly Column #5: Projecting the North Division Standings in 2021

Staturday Weekly Column #5: Projecting the North Division Standings in 2021

As we enter the last knockings of the preseason, it’s an apt time to check out what some analytical models are predicting will happen this season. This post will take a look at two different statistical models to see what they say about the all-new all-Canadian “North” division for the 2021 NHL season.
The first model comes from Moneypuck.com, a site geared toward season predictions and game odds. For instance, to open the season, the site projects the Leafs have a 53.7% chance of beating the Habs “at home”. Moneypuck claims to develop its model in the following way:

By running a simulation of the rest of the NHL season 100,000 times we can create precise probabilities of the outcome of the season for each team. Each game is simulated using the probabilities from the pre-game prediction model discussed below. For games further into the future, the model scores are regressed to the mean to account for uncertainty.

They run one model that includes various statistics that evaluate the strength of each team, and then a second model that looks at the outputs of the first model to determine how likely the Home team is to win. Statistics included Expected Goals …

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Author: Ryan Hobart / The Leafs Nation

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