Scott’s Thoughts: Why have the Leafs seemed “inconsistent”?

It’s weird. The Leafs are currently 5-2, tied for first in the division, and have even gotten point per game or better offense from the big four through seven games. But something seems off with this team.
Every game they play, they always have stretches where they can’t get anything going. Not just that, but they also don’t seem like they’re generating chances like they used to. Well, thankfully, there’s a bit of reasoning behind why. The Leafs haven’t looked like they’ve been creating chances because they haven’t been creating chances.
So far this season, the Leafs expected goals numbers have been mediocre at best. Expected goals helps us measure scoring chances because it measures each shot attempt and weighs it based on how much of a scoring chance it is. An unscreened point shot isn’t going to contribute much to it, while a shot into a wide open net off a rebound or cross crease pass will weigh a lot higher on it.
So far, the Leafs have only had 49.72% of the expected goals share at even strength. It’s not entirely bad, as that’s still really close to …

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Author: Scott Maxwell / The Leafs Nation

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