How the Leafs stack up in statistical prediction models for the 2021-22 season

We’re very nearly at the start of the 2021-22 NHL season, and as such, all of the very smart statistical minds in the public hockey sphere are releasing their season previews showing what their models project will happen this year. Other than the playoffs, this is one of my favourite times of the year, because it allows me to learn a bit more about statistical projections while getting my excitement level up for the upcoming season.
This year we’re going to be looking at 4 models:
FiveThirtyEight
Dom Luszczyszyn of The Athletic
Evolving-Hockey
Micah Blake McCurdy of HockeyViz
Each model is constructed differently, with different levels of “open-source” information on how it’s created. I’m not going to go too in depth on how each model works, but I’ll try to give a high level description, and link to the in depth explanations where I can.
I’ll also summarize the projections in a table at the bottom of the post for quick consumption, if that’s your thing.
FiveThirtyEight
Truthfully, in writing this article I’m only now discovering that FiveThirtyEight does NHL projections. I’ve used them extensively for political projections at election time, but …

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Author: Ryan Hobart / The Leafs Nation

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